Kate tour dates (was: Re: I'M FRIGHTENING!)

["Stuart M. Castergine" <scasterg@dispatch.com>]

On Fri, 4 Oct 1996 celeste@UWYO.EDU wrote:

> I heard that she doesn't tour because the type of concert-performance she
> gives takes too much out of her(ie physically too tiring),

Eureka! I was reading this post when it finally hit me! The secret to 
Kate's tour schedule!

If we postulate that touring is physically tiring for her, and that she 
has simply been recuperating since the Tour of Life, and that she will 
tour again as soon as she is recovered, then all we need to know to 
determine when she will tour again is to figure out how long it will take 
her to recover.

Fact: Kate was born in 1958.
Fact: The Tour of Life was in 1979.
Fact: That's 21 years.

So, it took 21 years for Kate to accumulate the energy for the Tour of Life.

Thus, our base number for "time between tours" is 21 years.

That would put the next tour in the year 2000!

However, that answer does not take into account various factors that 
could modify the time needed.

Fact: Kate had performed in some pubs around London with the KT Bush Band 
before her first album. That may have drained her reserves somewhat. Say 
a reduction of two years.

Fact: Kate was much younger then. Younger people have more energy, as I 
can witness just by watching my kids tear around the house. It is 
possible to accumulate more energy in that first 21 years than in any 
subsequent 21-year period. Let's assume for the sake of argument that it 
will take her 50% longer to accumulate the energy she had at 21 (but 
remember from above, we're actually only trying to rebuild 19 years worth 
of energy).

Fact: Kate has performed in public since the Tour of Life at various 
benefit concerts and the like, which would eat into the energy reserves 
she has been building. Again, call it a two-year reduction in available 
energy.

This gives us the equation
(years of energy) * 1.5 + (time needed to recover energy lost in 
post-tour performances) = (time until next tour)

19 *1.5 + 2 = 30.5

Round that up to 31 because I'm a pessimist.

Kate will tour in 2010!

She will be 52 years old!

;-)

Stu

mailto:scasterg@dispatch.com == Stuart M. Castergine | PGP: public key:   ---
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